The famous American political scientist "Barbara Walters" published an article in the Guardian newspaper entitled "Preparing America's Conditions for Political Violence", and wrote that Americans are increasingly talking about civil war and nearly half of the citizens of this country are worried about the disintegration of their country in the next 10 years.
Publish dateMonday 7 November 2022 - 12:29
Story Code : 260643
Afghan Voice Agency (AVA): Barbara Walters, professor at the School of Global Politics and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego and author of the book "How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them", on the website of the Guardian Press, London, in Astana Holding mid-term elections on November 8 (Scorpio 17), the US Congress has written: The use of the phrase and hashtag "civil war" on the social network Twitter after the attack of the American Federal Police "FBA" on the house of former President Donald Trump in August America has increased by three thousand percent.
Trump supporters immediately tweeted that if he is impeached, we will start a civil war. Trump himself predicted that if the wick of political sensitivities and violence is not pulled down in this country, terrible events will happen.
In January 2022, 34% of American citizens said in a survey that sometimes the use of violence against the government is justified, and seven months later, more than 40% of them said that they believed that a civil war might occur at least in the next 10 years.
While 2 years ago, no citizen spoke about the Second American Civil War, but these words have become very common now.
Referring to questions about the possibility of another civil war in the United States, following the publication of her book on civil wars, Ms. Walters says: The beliefs of American experts and citizens about the second civil war are based on the same misconception as the first war. is internal, while false.
According to him, maybe the second civil war of the United States is a guerrilla war between small militia groups across the country and their targets are citizens and mainly racial and religious minority groups, leaders of opposition groups and federal government employees, and the assassination of judges. Moderate Democrats and Republicans will be falsely accused, jailed, bombed, black Christian and Jewish places of worship.
He adds: Although the United States is not yet in a state of civil war, according to the CIA report on the signs of insurgencies that were declassified in 2012, when constant violence by extremists and extremists who are increasingly active will become the norm and violent extremists with advanced weapons such as explosives will start attacking not only people but very important infrastructures of the country such as hospitals, bridges and educational centers, the country will be in open rebellion and It has been revealed.
These attacks are carried out by a larger number of fighters, some of whom have experience and combat background, and often there is evidence of their infiltration and subversion operations in the army, law enforcement and security forces, and intelligence organizations.
In the first stage of the beginning of the civil war, the extremists, by showing the inability of the government to protect the security of the citizens or provide their essential and basic needs, and with the aim of inciting the expansion of the civil war by belittling the government and attracting increasing support for violent actions, forced the population to They are biased.
Experts still doubt that the incident of January 6, 2021 in the United States is one of such constant series of attacks, and this apparently has not happened yet due to the FBI's persistent countermeasures. The agents of this force have arrested more than 700 participants in this riot and accused 225 people of attacking, resisting and obstructing the police forces or congress workers.
Usually, civil war does not occur in healthy, complete and strong democratic systems, and it rarely occurs in autocratic governments. Violence almost always occurs in countries with weak and unstable pseudo-democratic governments.
In another part of this article, Walters adds: The United States is a perfect study example of a country on a civil war path that is increasingly one-sided. The American democratic system between 2016 and 2020 has often been quickly ignored, and since January 6, 2021, it has not been able to strengthen any aspect of the democratic system, which has exposed this system to the vulnerability of a permanent retreat towards the middle region.
No civil war has only one cause and several factors always lead to its decline and collapse. Several factors of what the CIA calls "threat exacerbating" are present in the United States today, including the ongoing damage of the environmental crisis, economic inequality at the highest level since the country's founding, and a shift in the demographic map that suggests this The country will become a land belonging to the white minority only in a period of more than 20 years. All these factors in creating internal unrest all over the world.
But the greater vulnerability of the United States to political violence compared to other countries is due to the exhaustion and incapacity of its institutions. Public trust in all kinds of institutions in this country in the past 40 years, such as the church, police, press, and universities, has been in free fall, and the level of trust in politicians will hardly decrease, and there is no reason for trust. The constitution, which is undoubtedly the work of geniuses of the 18th century, cannot reflect or react to the realities of the 21st century.
The gap between the American political system and any reflection of the will of the people is widening and becoming increasingly impossible to ignore. Electoral College rules mean that in the near term, it is possible for a Democrat with a few million more votes to lose the presidential election. The crisis of the democratic system is only increasing.
Pseudo-legitimacy leads to violence, and American political institutions are moving more and more towards pseudo-legitimacy. One of the most reliable signs of the beginning of civil war in other countries is the transformation of the judicial system from a non-partisan, independent and truly national institution to a corrupt partisan institution that occurred in the United States.
He adds: Election-related violence usually occurs when there are such factors: highly competitive elections that lead to a complete transfer of power. Party differences based on identity, electoral systems in which the winning party will own the entire country and no share will go to the defeated party, and political identities will be polarized in them, and there is no will to punish the violence committed by the dominant party. Victory that not only all these factors are present in America today, but they will be strengthened and intensified in 2024.
Barbara Walters concludes that America is undoubtedly headed for another civil war, and the only question is when it starts, and expect the next civil war after the 2024 election cycle, when the next wave of violence will likely emerge. . I bet there will be civil war along with terrorism, guerilla warfare and ethnic cleansing across the US and eventually race and racism will burn this country down.
Trump supporters immediately tweeted that if he is impeached, we will start a civil war. Trump himself predicted that if the wick of political sensitivities and violence is not pulled down in this country, terrible events will happen.
In January 2022, 34% of American citizens said in a survey that sometimes the use of violence against the government is justified, and seven months later, more than 40% of them said that they believed that a civil war might occur at least in the next 10 years.
While 2 years ago, no citizen spoke about the Second American Civil War, but these words have become very common now.
Referring to questions about the possibility of another civil war in the United States, following the publication of her book on civil wars, Ms. Walters says: The beliefs of American experts and citizens about the second civil war are based on the same misconception as the first war. is internal, while false.
According to him, maybe the second civil war of the United States is a guerrilla war between small militia groups across the country and their targets are citizens and mainly racial and religious minority groups, leaders of opposition groups and federal government employees, and the assassination of judges. Moderate Democrats and Republicans will be falsely accused, jailed, bombed, black Christian and Jewish places of worship.
He adds: Although the United States is not yet in a state of civil war, according to the CIA report on the signs of insurgencies that were declassified in 2012, when constant violence by extremists and extremists who are increasingly active will become the norm and violent extremists with advanced weapons such as explosives will start attacking not only people but very important infrastructures of the country such as hospitals, bridges and educational centers, the country will be in open rebellion and It has been revealed.
These attacks are carried out by a larger number of fighters, some of whom have experience and combat background, and often there is evidence of their infiltration and subversion operations in the army, law enforcement and security forces, and intelligence organizations.
In the first stage of the beginning of the civil war, the extremists, by showing the inability of the government to protect the security of the citizens or provide their essential and basic needs, and with the aim of inciting the expansion of the civil war by belittling the government and attracting increasing support for violent actions, forced the population to They are biased.
Experts still doubt that the incident of January 6, 2021 in the United States is one of such constant series of attacks, and this apparently has not happened yet due to the FBI's persistent countermeasures. The agents of this force have arrested more than 700 participants in this riot and accused 225 people of attacking, resisting and obstructing the police forces or congress workers.
Usually, civil war does not occur in healthy, complete and strong democratic systems, and it rarely occurs in autocratic governments. Violence almost always occurs in countries with weak and unstable pseudo-democratic governments.
In another part of this article, Walters adds: The United States is a perfect study example of a country on a civil war path that is increasingly one-sided. The American democratic system between 2016 and 2020 has often been quickly ignored, and since January 6, 2021, it has not been able to strengthen any aspect of the democratic system, which has exposed this system to the vulnerability of a permanent retreat towards the middle region.
No civil war has only one cause and several factors always lead to its decline and collapse. Several factors of what the CIA calls "threat exacerbating" are present in the United States today, including the ongoing damage of the environmental crisis, economic inequality at the highest level since the country's founding, and a shift in the demographic map that suggests this The country will become a land belonging to the white minority only in a period of more than 20 years. All these factors in creating internal unrest all over the world.
But the greater vulnerability of the United States to political violence compared to other countries is due to the exhaustion and incapacity of its institutions. Public trust in all kinds of institutions in this country in the past 40 years, such as the church, police, press, and universities, has been in free fall, and the level of trust in politicians will hardly decrease, and there is no reason for trust. The constitution, which is undoubtedly the work of geniuses of the 18th century, cannot reflect or react to the realities of the 21st century.
The gap between the American political system and any reflection of the will of the people is widening and becoming increasingly impossible to ignore. Electoral College rules mean that in the near term, it is possible for a Democrat with a few million more votes to lose the presidential election. The crisis of the democratic system is only increasing.
Pseudo-legitimacy leads to violence, and American political institutions are moving more and more towards pseudo-legitimacy. One of the most reliable signs of the beginning of civil war in other countries is the transformation of the judicial system from a non-partisan, independent and truly national institution to a corrupt partisan institution that occurred in the United States.
He adds: Election-related violence usually occurs when there are such factors: highly competitive elections that lead to a complete transfer of power. Party differences based on identity, electoral systems in which the winning party will own the entire country and no share will go to the defeated party, and political identities will be polarized in them, and there is no will to punish the violence committed by the dominant party. Victory that not only all these factors are present in America today, but they will be strengthened and intensified in 2024.
Barbara Walters concludes that America is undoubtedly headed for another civil war, and the only question is when it starts, and expect the next civil war after the 2024 election cycle, when the next wave of violence will likely emerge. . I bet there will be civil war along with terrorism, guerilla warfare and ethnic cleansing across the US and eventually race and racism will burn this country down.
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