Russia betting on Taliban victory in Afghanistan

AVA- Thirty years after its defeat in Afghanistan, Russia has made common cause with what was once its bitterest enemy in the country -- the Taliban movement.
Despite its status as an outlawed terrorist group, in recent years Russia has taken a very friendly attitude towards the Taliban.
At a press conference last week, Russian Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov strongly backed the group, saying, "The Taliban earned in blood its right to direct talks with the U.S.," adding that Russia "doesn't doubt the legitimacy of the Taliban Political Office in Doha to represent the movement."
He was speaking after a conference in Moscow unique in that it included public meetings between the Taliban and Afghanistan's Kabul-based government.
He also branded the Kabul government "a puppet," accusing it of "anxiousness," and said it could be replaced in next April's Afghan elections by figures acceptable to Taliban leaders.
His take on the Taliban is supported by the Russian media and analysts, which see a Taliban victory in the country as inevitable.
War, government, contact
Things between Russia and the Taliban were certainly not always this positive.
The Taliban movement emerged in the Afghan-Soviet war of 1979-1989. At the core of the movement were former madrasah students orphaned during the Afghan-Soviet war who were taught to fight Soviet soldiers.
Headed by Mullah Omar, the movement long served as an informal umbrella group uniting various military groups who resisted the Soviet invasion.
After the Soviet withdrawal and the fall of a Soviet-backed government, Afghanistan fell into civil war, and in 1994 the Taliban declared itself a political movement. In 1996 it took power in Afghanistan, and ruled the country till 2001, following the 9/11 attacks in the U.S.
Since 2007 Russia has been in contact with the Taliban, based on the moderate, political wing of the movement. The more Russia came at odds with the U.S., the more common cause it found with its opponents.
A recent fruit of this contact was the Taliban’s agreement to sit publicly with the Afghan government at the same table at the Nov. 9 Moscow conference on Afghanistan.
Moscow hailed the second round of Moscow format consultations on Afghanistan as a “unique” public and open event of this kind. Russian Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov characterized it as “a modest step towards full-fledged negotiations.”
‘Antidote’ to Daesh
Currently, the belief in a Taliban victory is pushing Russian officials to communicate with the movement at a very early stage so as to ensure a constructive dialogue when the group regains power in Afghanistan, Pavel Felgengauer, an independent military analyst, told media.
"The Russian conception implies that the Taliban will win,” he explained. “Thus it is very important to be friends with the winners, important for stability in Central Asia where Russia even now has strategic military objects and military bases, and space surveillance stations like Okno located in Nurak, Tajikistan."
According to Felgengauer, Russian authorities also worry about Daesh’s possible expansion and see the Taliban as "an antidote" to the terrorist group.
"Daesh is trying to spread its influence to Central Asia, which is unsupportable for Russia, while the Taliban promises to remain within the borders of Afghanistan. And for Russia this is good – they will not go to Central Asia, and we will not go to Afghanistan," he said.
Russian efforts on Afghanistan are also part of a push to promote the image of Russia as a peacemaker, Anton Mardasov, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, told media.
"Top officials keep bringing up the destructive U.S. actions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria,” he said.
“Even in Afghanistan the operation [in the wake of 9/11] started without a relevant UN Security Council resolution. On the other hand, Russia, Turkey, and Iran managed to stop the war in Syria."
Old Soviet weapons will do
Felgengauer says under this policy of friendship with the Taliban, Russia can supply arms to the Taliban through intermediaries.
"Russia keeps denying that it’s supplying arms but I think it's possible. The Taliban doesn't buy S-400 air defense systems, they need simple things, things from old Soviets armories will do," he said.
The Taliban also denies the arms supplies rumours. Last year Afghan field commander Said Mohammad Akbar Agha told reporters that both money and military help from Moscow are unacceptable and would be seen as interference in their internal affairs.
This position was confirmed by Taliban spokesperson Mohammad Suhail Shaheen, who last week responded negatively to the question about arms purchases from Russia on the sidelines of the second round of the Moscow format consultations on Afghanistan.
Related players
In any case, Russia shouldn't forget that the Taliban isn’t acting in a vacuum and so must consider the interests of the other players, Yury Mavashev, head of political research of the Center for Modern Turkish Studies, told the source.
"Very important players -- Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia -- were not presented at the Moscow conference on Afghanistan. This was a serious oversight, as their weight implies their presence at least with observer status," he said.
In particular, Mavashev was surprised by the absence of Turkey. Considering the Russian-Turkish experience in Syria, it would have been logical to send an invitation to Ankara in the first place, he said.