Analyzing the two-stage Turkish presidential election

Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) - Monitoring: The Supreme Election Council of Turkey reported: "During the simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, with the participation of 88.48 percent of the people, the record of the highest participation rate in the history of Turkish elections was recorded."

 

According to the announced statistics, less than 12% of Turkish people did not participate in the presidential elections. In the 100-year history of the Republic of Turkey, the participation rate was lower than 70% and reached 64% only twice.

 

According to the election laws in Turkey, each citizen can only vote in one predetermined place and also the government has the right to collect fines from citizens who do not vote, but this law has not been practically implemented and no one has been fined for not voting. .

 

The results of the presidential elections in Turkey show the fact that the number of votes of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always decreased over the past years.

 

For example, based on the results of the previous Turkish presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to rely on the Turkish presidential seat by winning 52% of the votes, but in the presidential election on May 14 of this year, Erdogan won with less than 50%. Voters' votes, he could not celebrate his victory in the first round.

 

The reason for this is clear. The implementation of wrong policies in the economic fields and the emergence of crises in the lives of the Turkish people with the increase in the inflation rate and the decrease in the value of the national currency, and repeated mistakes in foreign policy and the adoption of aggressive military policies towards neighboring countries have been among the problems that have arisen from the opinions of Recep Tayyip. Erdogan lost in the current election.

Obviously, in the second round of the presidential election - which is scheduled to be held on May 28, the current president of Turkey will have a tough competition with Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

 

It is obvious that in the second round, if the candidates for the Turkish presidential election can get any number of votes from the people who did not participate in the election, they can consider themselves the next president of Turkey.

 

What is certain is that the third candidate of the presidential election plays a very important and influential role. The third candidate of the election, Sinan Oghan, who has more than five percent of the votes in the presidential election, can give his votes to that candidate if he agrees with any of the winning candidates.

 

In fact, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu are in a situation where they desperately need the help of Sinan Oghan. In other words, Sinan Oghan's votes for the two candidates who made it to the second stage are decisive and can determine the next president of Turkey.

 

Apart from the Turkish presidential election, which has been extended to the second round, the results of the Turkish parliamentary elections are also considered important. According to the votes counted from the total of 600 seats in the Turkish Parliament, the "President's Coalition" including the Justice and Development Party, the National Movement Party and the New Welfare Party belonging to the son of "Najmedin Erbakan", the first Islamist Prime Minister of Turkey, have taken over a total of 322 seats in the Parliament. .

 

Despite the fact that the President's coalition has managed to take over the majority of parliamentary seats, compared to the previous period when it had taken over 53% of the total votes and 342 parliamentary seats, in this period it actually lost 20 of its parliamentary seats. has lost

 

"Etalafa Mellat" led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu has won 212 seats as a coalition of opposition parties. Meanwhile, the Labor and Freedom Coalition has also won 66 seats. The Kurdish, Green and Future Left parties have weakened a bit and won five seats less than in the 2018 elections.

 

In a general summary of the Turkish presidential election, it should be said that what makes the Turkish people inclined towards the election candidates are the promises of improving the economic situation in Turkey.

 

It is obvious that during the last few years, Erdogan's economic team has not been able to improve the chaotic situation of the crisis-stricken economy inside Turkey. In fact, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lost his opportunities in this field.

 

This is despite the fact that influential people such as "Ali Babajan", who developed the Turkish economy during the first decade of the ruling Justice and Development Party, are now playing a role in the economic team of Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

 

In the field of foreign policy, people like Ahmet Davutoglu, who previously worked as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Erdogan's government, has now joined the team of Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

 

In this way, it can be predicted that under normal circumstances, Kılıçdaroğlu has a better chance to win in the second round. Especially since he has promised to take Turkey's foreign policy out of the aggressive mode.